Which team will win the Championship playoffs?

Millwall

For a while it looked as if Millwall would secure automatic promotion, but they finished a point behind Ipswich. Millwall have only spent two seasons in the English top flight. They won the Division Two title in 1987-88, finished 10th in their first season in the top flight and were relegated the following year having finished last.

They visit Hull City for the first leg of their semi-final on Friday night, but travelling has not been an issue for them this season. Millwall won more away points than any other team in the Championship this season (41) and lost just four of their 23 away games. One of their away wins came at Hull in March (3-1) – although they lost by the same scoreline in their home match against the Tigers.

Millwall have a mixed history in the playoffs. They have reached the final in their last four playoff appearances, all of which were in League One (2008-09, 2009-10, 2015-16, 2016-17). But, on the flip side, they have been beaten in the semi-finals in their three appearances in the second-tier playoffs (1990-91, 1993-94, 2001-02).

The good news is that success in the regular season tends to carry over to the playoffs. Teams that have finished third in the table have reached the playoff final (17 times) and won promotion (nine times) more often than any other league position since the Championship rebrand in 2004-05.

Millwall face another of the more direct sides in the Championship when they meet Hull. Only Oxford United and Charlton (both 21%) played a higher proportion of their passes long than Millwall and Hull in 2025-26 (19%). Femi Azeez will be Millwall’s key player, having been their top scorer (11) and assister (seven) in the league this season.

Hull City

Hull City have the opportunity to make their way back to the Premier League after a nine-year absence. They came from behind to beat Norwich 2-1 on the final day of the season and pipped Wrexham to a place in the playoffs.

Oliver McBurnie scored both goals in that win and he has been their main threat all season. He scored four goals in his last five games and to take his tally to 17 in the Championship – only Swansea forward Zan Vipotnik (23) scored more.

Statistically, Hull City were the biggest overachievers this season, securing 19.9 points more than their expected points total (73 v 53.1). Astonishingly, if the Championship season was based on expected points, they would have finished 23rd. Hull finished sixth with 73 points. The last team to be promoted with fewer points were Crystal Palace, who finished the 2012-13 season with just 72 points but went on to beat Watford in the playoff final.

Since the Championship rebrand in 2004-05, only two teams have won the playoff final after finishing sixth in the table. Hull will hope to replicate the feats of West Ham in 2004-05 and Blackpool in 2009-10, who did just that.

Southampton

Southampton have been the best performers in the Championship since Tonda Eckert was appointed manager in November. During his time in charge, Saints collected more points than any other team (68). They also came close to reaching the FA Cup final, only missing out after Manchester City came from behind and won their semi-final 2-1 thanks to two late goals.

Under Eckert they scored 11 goals more than any other team in the Championship (69), and were by far the most clinical team in the division, too, converting 14.4% of their shots. One player who has thrived under Eckert is 27-year-old forward Léo Scienza, who has been involved in 16 goals (six goals, 10 assists) in 29 games under the German coach.

So poor was Southampton’s start to the season – they were fourth from bottom after 13 matches, when Will Still was sacked – that they only spent 49 days inside the Championship top six this season. Even Leicester, who were relegated, spent more days in the top six (59). Southampton are unbeaten in their last 19 league games (14 wins, five draws). This is their longest unbeaten run since the 2023-24 season (22 games) – when they ended up winning the playoff final.

Finishing fourth might be a good omen, too. The team that has finished fourth in the Championship has won promotion in three of the last four seasons, including Southampton themselves two years ago.

One thing that might work against them is their form in the biggest league games. They only won one of their 10 matches against the other teams that finished in the top six – the worst record in that mini-league.

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough are hoping to end their eight-season spell in the Championship and may consider themselves unfortunate to not already be celebrating promotion. They finished fifth in the table, but spent 217 days in the top two – the same as champions Coventry. Ipswich stole in at the last, having spent just 28 days in the top two – fewer than 17th-placed Stoke City (43).

Middlesbrough had an incredible record of holding on to leads earlier this season. Before their draw against Bristol City on 14 March, they had won all 20 league games in which they had led. But, in their last nine games, they dropped 11 points from winning positions.

Boro had to deal with losing Rob Edwards in November. Attracted to the proposition of managing Wolves, a club he had played for, he moved on after less than five months in charge. His replacement, Kim Hellberg, has done a decent enough job. Since the Swede’s first game in charge on 29 November, Middlesbrough have won 50 points – the sixth-best tally in the league.

Under Hellberg, Middlesbrough have had the highest possession in the Championship (62.8%) and averaged 51 more successful passes per game (459) than any other side. Southampton, who they play in the playoff semi-finals, are second in both categories.

Boro do not have the best record in the playoffs. They were promoted to the top flight via the playoffs in 1987-88, when they beat Chelsea over two legs. But they have reached the second-tier playoffs four times since then and have not won promotion.

Who will win the playoffs?

The Opta supercomputer has been hard at work crunching the data to predict who will win promotion to the Premier League and it makes Southampton the favourites. Saints reached the final in 58.8% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations and won it 32.9% of the time. Millwall are the only club in the playoffs that have never played in the Premier League, but they are the supercomputer’s second favourites. Middlesbrough and Hull are the outsiders.

This is an article by Opta Analyst